Basilea Pharmaceutica AG (BSLN-CH): Cresemba shines in H1/2018 results
- 56
|
goetzpartners securities Limited Free to access research and investor meetings in a post-MiFID2 world. This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as professional investors or eligible counterparties (institutional investors) in the applicable jurisdiction, and not by any private individuals or other persons who qualify as retail clients.
Basilea Pharmaceutica AG (BSLN-CH): Cresemba shines in H1/2018 results KEY TAKEAWAY The key update at the H1 results was an upgrade to 2018E revenue guidance to reflect stronger than expected sales growth of antifungal Cresemba (isavuconazole) in the US and Europe, prompting us to lift 2018E - 2020E revenues by up to 17%. While its commercialisation partners continue to grow sales of Cresemba and antibiotic Zevtera (ceftobiprole) in existing and new regions, Basilea has been focused on advancing and expanding its pipeline to pave the way for sustained long-term growth. We increase our target price per share to CHF112 (from CHF108) and reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation, as the current share price does not reflect the full potential of both marketed and clinical-stage pipeline assets, in our view. Strong H1/2018 results reflect strong Cresemba growth in the US and Europe Basilea reported H1 revenues of CHF59.9m, +30% YoY, driven largely by Cresemba, which reached in-market sales of $120m in the year to 31 March 2018, reflecting continued strong growth in the US, where it is marketed by Astellas, but also Europe, where Pfizer launched in new regions. Cresemba and Zevtera together generated revenues of CHF27.8m, with deferred revenue from Toctino (CHF18.8m) and reimbursements from BARDA (CHF13.2m) accounting for the remainder. The momentum is expected to continue following the approvals of Cresemba and Zevtera in LatAm (Grupo Biotoscana) and MENA (Hikma), plus new approvals and launches in the next 12 - 18 months. Raising revenue forecasts by 17% in FY2018E and 10% in FY2019E In light of Cresemba's strong performance in the US and Europe, Basilea increased FY2018E revenue outlook to CHF120m - CHF130m (from CHF105m - CHF115m), based on higher expected contributions from Cresemba and Zevtera of CHF75m - CHF85m (prev. CHF60m - CHF65m). We therefore increased FY2018E and FY2019E revenues to CHF127m and CHF143m, respectively, and remain confident that the top line will grow next year despite the loss of deferred revenue from Toctino (c.CHF24m in 2018E). Our operating loss estimate for 2018E is unchanged at c.CHF30m and in line with revised guidance of CHF25m - CHF35m (prev. CHF10m - CHF20m), as increases to R&D are offset by higher revenues and lower SG&A. Next 12 - 18 months to deliver key data points from expanded pipeline Key late-stage pipeline developments include: (1) start of two US Ph III trials (skin infections ["ABSSSI"] and S. aureus bacteraemia) for ceftobiprole, (2) in-licensing of panFGFR kinase inhibitor derazantinib, in a registrational Ph II trial for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ("iCCA"), (3) start of Ph III trial for isavuconazole in Japan. We look forward to multiple data points in the next 12 - 18 months, particularly (1) the interim analysis for the derazantinib Ph II trial in iCCA in H1/2019E, and (2) top-line results for the ceftobiprole Ph III trial in ABSSSI in H2/2019E. Kind regards,
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK. T +44 (0) 203 859 7725 | [email protected] / [email protected] www.goetzpartnerssecurities.com Registered in England No. 04684144. Managing Directors: Dr Stephan Goetz, Martin Brunninger and Ulrich Kinzel.
GPSL publishes and distributes "Investment" Research and "Corporate Sponsored" Research. Our Corporate Sponsored Research and investor meetings (e.g. NDRs, 1 to 1 meetings) are free to access and attend and is not classified as an inducement in a post-MiFID2 world, this is because the issuer is paying GPSL. GPSL does not offer any execution or market making services. This is a marketing communication as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA"). The information herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5). In accordance with the General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR") - if you would like to be removed / unsubscribed from our CRM (also please note that you are free to contact GPSL at any time in the future to have your e-mail subscription amended), please e-mail: About GPSL: goetzpartners securities Limited is a member of the goetzpartners group, and a leading pan European investment bank and research company. We bring together a wide range of expertise, insights and innovations to advance the interests of our clients around the world. The fast-changing environment brings challenges for businesses and investors. Research innovation, digital transformation and disruptive business ideas reshuffle the corporate world at a relentless pace. Our sector knowledge and our global footprint bring together corporate intelligence and a deep understanding of the industry with a wide network of top decision makers. These collective insights help our clients to stay at the leading edge of change. This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as professional investors or eligible counterparties (institutional investors) in the applicable jurisdiction, and not by any private individuals or other persons who qualify as retail clients. This e-mail (including any attachments) from goetzpartners securities Limited ("GPSL") is confidential and may contain information which is proprietary, privileged or otherwise legally protected against unauthorised use or disclosure. If you receive this e-mail in error or are not the intended recipient of this e-mail, please delete and destroy all copies in your possession, notify the sender that you have received this e-mail, and note that any review or dissemination of, or the taking of any action in reliance on this e-mail is expressly prohibited. GPSL shall not be liable for the improper or incomplete transmission of the information contained in this e-mail nor for any delay in its receipt or damage to your system. GPSL does not guarantee that the integrity of this e-mail has been maintained nor that this e-mail is free of viruses, interceptions or interference and makes no warranties in relation to these matters. This is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or investment products, or an official confirmation. GPSL record electronic and phone communications in accordance with FCA and MiFID2 regulations, they will be monitored for regulatory and training purposes. GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (Firm Reference Number: 225563). Click on the following link for the GPSL MiFID2 Investor Guidance Notice GPSL Equity Research publications are available on the following aggregators and via news distribution circuits (For Institutional Use Only): AlphaSense, Bloomberg (GOET), Capital IQ, EQS, FACTSET, Research Tree, RNS Reach and Thomson Reuters. If you cannot click on the above hyperlink please copy the below link and paste it into your browser for the full pdf version of the equity research report: Free to access research and investor meetings in a post-MiFID2 world. This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as professional investors or eligible counterparties (institutional investors) in the applicable jurisdiction, and not by any private individuals or other persons who qualify as retail clients.
Dissemination of a CORPORATE NEWS, transmitted by EQS Group. |
715183 17-Aug-2018
EQS Group is a leading international technology provider for Digital Investor Relations, Corporate Communications and Compliance. More than 8,000 companies worldwide trust EQS’s products and services to securely, efficiently, and simultaneously fulfil complex national and international disclosure and compliance requirements, and to reach stakeholders globally.
