Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Hot property mis-priced
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Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Hot property mis-priced KEY TAKEAWAY With Novartis spending $6bn on AAA and Endocyte, Actinium looks grossly mis-priced following the management turn-round. Data reported at ASH (American Society of Haematology) support a positive outlook. These data should accelerate recruitment for the on-going pivotal Phase 3 for Iomab-B in AML and support its broader use in HSCT (Human Stem Cell Transplant). Phase 2 data underpin the new strategy to leverage the Actinium platform in targeted HSCT conditioning as well as in combination with other cancer therapies. This should enable Actinium to commercialise conditioning regimens itself in the transplant market while exploiting the broad range of therapeutic applications through partners. We see the current volatility as a buying opportunity. We maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and TP of $4.00. Compelling data in poorly treated population - While bone marrow transplant represents one of the only effective treatments and promotes survival, few >55yr patients with active R / R AML are eligible; older patients do not respond well to current conditioning. Effective in 100% of older patients for HSCT in the on-going pivotal trial, Iomab-B could have a dramatic benefit. Given the known survival benefits of HSCT and the Iomab-B arm relapse-free over 100 days, these results bode well for the key Phase III 180-day endpoint due in 2019E. Opportunity in CAR-T therapy - Although CAR-T therapy has been shown to be very effective, current conditioning needed to prepare patients may restrict use in frailer patients and potentially blunt therapeutic response. Efficient targeted conditioning with the lower dose Iomab-ACT could provide an effective alternative improving both patient eligibility and efficacy. Phase 2 underpins dual strategy - Actimab-A Phase 2 data support use of molecular targeted 225-Ac radiation for HSCT conditioning and targeted disease therapy. Higher dosing eradicates cancer cells and provides pre-transplant conditioning. Lower doses can leverage the multiple synergistic anti-cancer effects of radiation, but with the limited toxicity necessary for combination with other cancer therapies. This underpins a strategy of direct marketing of conditioning regimens to transplant centres with therapeutic application out licensed. Acceleration into Phase 3 - An FDA-agreed protocol allows Actimab-MDS to move into pivotal Phase 3 for pre-HSCT for myelodysplastic syndrome in 2019E. Lower dose Actimab combination therapies entering early stage trials should drive partnering. Adding to the buzz around radiopharmaceuticals - Following closely on the heels of the recent $2.2bn acquisition of Endocyte Inc by Novartis, these data can only add to the excitement around radiopharmaceuticals. One of a handful of pure play clinical stage radio pharma companies, Actinium looks an attractive asset. We maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and $4.00 target price. Kind regards,
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