EUR/GBP - The Calm Before The Storm - 11/18/2020 (GMT)

STATE OF THE MARKETS
Optimism retreats as risk seeks shelter in safe-havens . Equities took a step back as major institutions consolidated their gains and prepare to close books in three weeks before Christmas. On a side note, Amazon surprised markets with venture in pharmacy which saw CVS and Walgreens fell. Increased Covid cases led Federal Reserve to warn of a long road to recovery which sent the greenback lower and flight to bond safety. The benchmark 10Y yield fell to close 30 basis points lower than open.

President Trump’s latest decision to pull US troops out of the middle east, spooked the oil markets that are concerned on potential supply disruption that help support prices; but rising lockdowns worldwide is capping price from surging higher. Gold remains well bid with more than 1/2 billion worth of contracts traded on the futures market. Block orders of call options were also seen as traders bet on the rising volatility going into winter.

In the FX space, safe havens Yen and Swiss are already accelerating further in the short and medium term accounts. Dollar was drifting lower with heavy bidding volume that may suggest selling climax is at play.

OUR PICK – EUR/GBP
Sceptics remain sceptical of Brexit sign-off. Speculation of the UK signing a trade deal with the EU as early as next week helped buoyed Sterling in the short-term, though medium-term sceptics still won’t believe it until they see it. Long term accounts see the issue will be resolved regardless; but play it safe by hedging it with anti-inflationary assets. This trade has about +70% positive weekly and +40% daily correlation with our previous pick on gold. It is also one of the most boring trade due to low volatility. Please adjust your risk exposure and patience wisely.