AUD/USD - AUDUSD reaches six-month highs - 07/11/2025 (GMT)

8 July’s surprising hold by the RBA helped the Aussie dollar to recover lost ground against its American counterpart and push up to a new high. Sentiment seems to be mostly discounting the American governments announcements about upcoming tariffs while underlying data from Australia are somewhat positive or at least certainly not as negative as had been expected around the beginning of the year.

The 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement around 65.5c still seems to be a main technical reference because the price hasn’t decisively broken beyond this area yet. With extremely low volume compared to peaks in early April, ATR reaching new lows, the slow stochastic close to overbought and momentum from the chart seemingly lower, there’s a real possibility that the trend might change and the price try to push lower. The value area between the 20 and 50 SMA around 65c and particularly the 50 SMA itself look like possibly important supports in the short term.

If the uptrend continues, the next strong resistance isn’t obvious. 67c is the area of the 200 SMA on the weekly chart but that’s still quite a long way off. Equally, the price might consolidate in the runup to American inflation on Tuesday 15 July.

This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.